Nvidia’s next-gen Lovelace graphics cards might be delayed until December 2022, or so the rumor mill reckons.
This fresh speculation comes from prominent YouTube leaker Moore’s Law is Dead (opens in new tab) (MLID), who believes that the launch of RTX 4000 GPUs could be pushed back based on feedback from multiple industry sources.
Now, we’ve already heard about Nvidia and its partners having to deal with excess RTX 3000 stock, and it seems this could be an even bigger problem than previously thought, with MLID stating that some sources are now talking in terms of the situation being ‘desperate’.
Quotes from MLID’s sources (some of the most favored and reliable ones, the leaker asserts) include this: “We’ve been forced to swallow tens of thousands of high-end Ampere cards we don’t want, nor are we sure we can sell them above what we paid.”
That does indeed sound like a desperate situation, if retailers are starting to look at the prospect of selling the graphics cards at next-to-no profit, such is the potential rush to get rid of them.
Of course, that puts pressure on Nvidia, because if Team Green launches, or even reveals, RTX 4000 graphics cards too soon before that excess RTX 3000 stock is sold down to a more palatable level, that could place a strain on relationships with its retail partners.
The upshot is that one source MLID is in contact with said that next-gen Lovelace GPUs should have hit in October – which is certainly a rumor we’ve heard previously – but now there could be a postponement to as late as December.
Another source says RTX 4000 may not hit until November, and while all of this chatter is couched in terms of ‘might be’, the overall suggestion is that Lovelace is likely to be pushed back from Nvidia’s originally intended launch – by which we mean appearing on shelves – schedule. It’s possible, and indeed highly probable, that this will be preceded by some kind of initial reveal, but even that couldn’t come too soon without a danger of creating headwinds for current-gen sales.
Analysis: Rock and a hard place?
This isn’t the first time that we’ve heard about a potential hold-up for RTX 4000 GPUs – although remember, all this is just speculation via the grapevine – but it’s somewhat worrying that more than one source is now floating this theory. If you recall, a recent DigiTimes report (from just over a week ago) noted that Nvidia was purportedly looking to cut Lovelace orders at TSMC, partly due to an ‘enormous channel inventory’ of RTX 3000 cards still hanging around – and that this could mean a delay in shipments of RTX 4000 models.
Nvidia is apparently facing a number of issues which include that supposedly huge backlog of stock building up at a time when GPU prices are still relatively high (especially for Team Green’s models), and a cost of living crisis is starting to impact the budgets of PC gamers.
Throw on top of that the crypto crash which has meant ex-mining graphics cards are now flooding the second-hand market, further impacting demand for new GPUs (be very careful around buying a used GPU off eBay right now, of course). Furthermore, there’s also another consideration – sales to Russia have been blocked, too, and that inventory is having to be dumped on the already saturated regions elsewhere.
Overall, it’s not a pretty picture, but the problem Nvidia has is that if the decision is made to put off launching RTX 4000 cards, then that leaves the door open for AMD to come in with a head-start for its next-gen RDNA 3 GPUs, grabbing market share before Team Green is even off the starting blocks.
With RDNA 3 still set to launch in Q4, potentially in October, that puts a limit on how long Nvidia might be able to put things off without losing too much ground in the next-gen race. Although it does depend on what RDNA 3 models AMD kicks off with, and in what quantity – although rumor has it that Team Red has not adjusted 5nm (next-gen) orders with TSMC, whereas Nvidia is looking to do so, as mentioned.
What the upshot of all this will be, ultimately, we don’t know, but the weight of evidence is growing that Nvidia has a thorny set of problems on its hands here regarding the transition from Ampere to Lovelace, which could be very much to AMD’s advantage.
Meanwhile, if you are eyeing a current-gen GPU as prices continue to head downwards, the advice remains to wait, particularly for Nvidia’s graphics cards – as it seems the race to sell off RTX 3000 stock may be about to begin in earnest, and that should mean even faster falling price tags (finally dipping below MSRP across the board, likely, if these rumors are right).
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